Nasralla leads polls in Honduras

Several public opinion surveys rank Salvador Nasralla as the leading candidate in voting preferences for the 2025 general elections, within a context characterized by conflicts among the primary political parties of the nation.

Five months ahead of the general elections in Honduras, the latest survey results reveal a competitive landscape. Salvador Nasralla, the Liberal Party’s present candidate, is at the forefront in two significant May studies. This information indicates a period of crucial political choices, where potential opposition coalitions and the solidification of candidacies might play a crucial role in shaping the electoral proceedings.

Polls place Nasralla in first place

A survey executed by the American company Expedition Strategies in May 2025 shows Salvador Nasralla achieving 25.2% of the electoral support, with Nasry Asfura from the National Party trailing at 21.4%, and Rixi Moncada of the governing LIBRE party acquiring 16%. Furthermore, the results underscore that Nasralla is the preferred choice to head a potential opposition coalition, garnering 37% backing in this context.

A second survey, carried out by the Paradigma polling company from May 4 to 17, shows comparable outcomes. In this survey, Nasralla achieves 25.6%, followed once more by Asfura with 21.2% and Moncada with 11.3%. The alignment of the two surveys strengthens the view that Nasralla’s leadership is steady at this stage of the election timeline.

Differences in research findings and debates regarding data utilization

Despite the convergence between these two studies, there is no full consensus among the published measurements. A poll by TResearch International, released in March 2025, shows a different configuration: Rixi Moncada was then leading with 44.9%, followed by Nasralla with 27.5% and Asfura with 23.4%. The divergence in the results is attributed to the timing of the study, as well as the methodology used, although no further details have been disclosed.

Amid these differences, a dispute emerged due to the spread of a supposed survey linked to TResearch, which indicated Nasralla as leading. The firm openly disclaimed the validity of the document, stating it was not part of any analysis carried out by them and refuted the unapproved use of their brand and emblem. This incident has sparked the ongoing discussion about the distortion of surveys and their effect on public sentiment, particularly in a scenario marked by intense political division.

Open scenario and expectations for party definitions

With elections scheduled for November 2025, the political landscape in Honduras continues to develop amid open competition between three main blocs: the ruling party represented by LIBRE, the National Party, and the Liberal Party. Nasralla, who has been a presidential candidate in previous elections and currently represents a faction of the Liberal Party, is once again emerging as a central player in the pre-election scenario.

The chance of forming an opposition coalition is still being debated, especially among groups looking to join forces against the current party’s sustained rule. The backing Nasralla is getting as a possible head of an alliance indicates that his influence might exceed his solo candidacy, contingent on the choices made by the party in the upcoming months.

An electoral process marked by institutional uncertainty

The dissemination of contradictory polls and the misuse of statistical data reflect the challenges facing the Honduran electoral process in terms of transparency and credibility. Added to this are tensions between the main political actors and public expectations regarding a contest that, for the moment, appears to have no clear majority.

The development of the contenders, the establishment of partnerships, and the stance of established groups in relation to emerging coalitions will shape the political atmosphere in the latter part of the year. In this scenario, the part played by electoral bodies and civil organizations in monitoring and ensuring a lawful process will be vital to maintaining the country’s democratic equilibrium.