Opposition coalition in Honduras: a brake on the ruling party’s power in 2025?

The national elections in Honduras, set for November 30, 2025, are occurring amid political unrest and institutional doubts. The political landscape is characterized by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over government bodies and an opposition struggling to form a cohesive alternative. Indicators of democratic erosion and conflicts between major institutions like the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces provoke worries about the process’s transparency and legitimacy.

The situation in Honduras is marked by fragmented opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party discuss a potential coalition. Nonetheless, internal conflicts and the absence of consensus on leadership and policies have hindered the establishment of a unified alliance. The recent primary elections exposed logistical issues and saw low voter participation, raising questions about the electoral system and drawing criticism toward institutional governance.

Oversight by institutions and conflicts during voting procedures

The Nodos analysis indicates that democracy in Honduras is experiencing strain, with the governing party holding onto power by exerting structural influence over institutions. This context has led to potential scenarios such as the persistence of the present system, institutional gridlock, or even a constitutional crisis. Concerns about the neutrality and effectiveness of the process have been heightened due to tensions between the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, which manage electoral logistics. Furthermore, the absence of electoral reforms and ongoing political division escalate the chances of disputes following the elections.

Various groups within civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure an open and participatory election process, honoring democratic values to maintain the political and social stability of the nation. The current situation, featuring a governing party with institutional dominance, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed election system, heightens the risk of a unique institutional crisis in Honduras.

Situations involving opposition alliances and reactions of the government party

In light of the present situation, the Liberal and National parties have initiated official discussions to investigate the potential for forming a coalition to oppose the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. These discussions have covered strategies for electoral alliance, the allocation of candidates, and a shared platform focused on safeguarding democracy, the market-based economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties highlight that the administration of Xiomara Castro and her advisor, Manuel Zelaya, have implemented measures aimed at centralizing authority, such as employing the Public Ministry to act against adversaries, endeavors to manipulate the CNE, and suggestions for constitutional amendments.

If the coalition is formed, the two traditional parties could account for more than 50% of the electorate, according to recent polls. Social and business sectors see this union as a viable alternative to limit the ruling party’s progress. For its part, the ruling party has downplayed the impact of a possible opposition alliance, arguing that it offers no solutions for the country. The 2025 electoral process is shaping up to be a referendum between the continuation of the refoundation project promoted by LIBRE and a return to a republican and pro-investment model backed by a unified opposition. The outcome will define the political and institutional direction of Honduras.