Five months before the general elections on November 30, the ruling Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party faces a critical juncture marked by internal divisions, allegations of corruption, and a sharp decline in voting intentions. In an increasingly uncertain electoral scenario, the ruling party’s accumulated wear and tear threatens to end its tenure in power.
Breakdown in unity and internal conflicts
The selection of Rixi Moncada as the ruling party’s candidate exposed tensions that had been building within LIBRE. The subsequent resignation of Congressman Jorge Cálix, a long-time member of the organization, revealed deep disagreements over the party’s political direction and leadership style. Cálix, along with other leaders who also left the party, denounced authoritarian practices and a culture of exclusion.
In response, the party leadership called for demonstrations in support of both President Xiomara Castro and Moncada herself. However, these actions failed to reverse the perception of a weakened organization and have been interpreted by various sectors as attempts to retain political control in the midst of an adverse environment.
Corruption scandals and questions about transparency
The situation deteriorated further after the disclosure of supposed irregularities within the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), where deputies linked to the governing party faced accusations of misappropriating funds intended for social programs. The most notable instance involved Congresswoman Isis Cuéllar, whose suspension was declared alongside the termination of social funds and an extraordinary step: the party collectively renouncing legislative immunity.
Despite the apparent forcefulness of these decisions, opposition sectors, especially the National Party, described them as symbolic maneuvers intended to divert attention. According to their spokespersons, the ruling party’s actions have not involved real sanctions or effective investigations to ensure accountability.
Unrest in the private sector and appeals to stop the decline in institutions
Criticism has not been limited to the political sphere. Leading voices in the business sector have expressed concern about the country’s direction. In a recent public statement, Eduardo Facussé, former president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Cortés (CCIC), directly blamed the government for betraying the popular mandate with practices that, according to him, include nepotism, discretionary use of public funds, and lack of transparency in emblematic cases such as SEDESOL, the Koriun scam, and allegations of links to criminal networks.
Facussé warned of the weakening of institutions and called on citizens to defend the rule of law in the face of what he considered an attempt to consolidate an authoritarian and financially unsustainable model.
Collapse in the polls and reconfiguration of the electoral map
The latest surveys show a swift drop in LIBRE’s voter support. Based on information gathered from May to June, backing for the current party has varied from 11% to 28.5%, significantly lower than the 42% seen in March. This decrease, along with inconsistencies across surveys, indicates a divided electoral base looking for other options.
At the same time, opposition candidates such as Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura have gained ground, reaching levels of support ranging from 25% to 36%. Citizen ratings are also indicative of the government’s erosion: President Xiomara Castro receives an average rating of just 4.1 out of 10, in a context marked by unresolved scandals and a growing perception of inefficiency.
A doubtful future for the governing party
The current situation presents LIBRE with a major challenge. The combination of internal crises, institutional deterioration, loss of credibility, and citizen rejection has weakened its position ahead of the general elections. If this trajectory continues, the ruling party risks not only losing control of the executive branch but also seeing the political project that brought it to power in 2021 compromised.
In this scenario, the outcome will depend on the party’s ability to rebuild its internal structure, address social demands, and offer clear responses to allegations of corruption. Otherwise, the November 30 election could mark a turning point in Honduran politics.
